North Korean Summit

Dear Mr. President,

Well, you have gone and done it. You made a third rate dictator look like the reasonable one. You promised a summit, then canceled it while threating to destroy his country.

You and your advisers have been wanting to make North Korea the latest boogie man. Your newest National Security adviser, John Bolton, has been wanting to go to war with North Korea since the days of Bush the Younger.

Did you really think that Kim Jong-un was going to destroy the nuclear weapons that he and his father had spent 30 years and a fortune developing and build? Between wanting a total de-nucleation and the threats of a “Libya Solution,” you thought that North Korea was not going do a little posturing back? Get a clue.

OK, Mr. Dealmaker, time for some more education. First, Country leaderships are not business people. They play by different rules. They are not going to fall for the Cons that you have pulled on other business. They have Intelligent Agencies that check every claim that you are going to make. They have dossiers about you and every person around you. They more about you than you do.

Deals and treaties take a long time to work through because of this. Slow and steady is how the best deals are made. Both sides have to feel that they have gotten something positive out it. You also have to look long term about the effects it will have. Don’t believe me? Look at the results of the Treaty of Versailles.

Now North Korea destroyed their underground nuclear site to the foreign press. Was it really their test site? Only nuclear physicists will know for sure. But this was part of a good faith gesture before the summit. And yet you canceled it a couple of hour after that.

Why, Mr. President? Multiple news reports state that you did it, so that you could cancel before the North Koreans. Was this to create the headlines and control the story? Well, it didn’t work. The headlines were negative and made yourself look petty and small.

With the sudden cancelation, you caught our allies and friends flat footed. Heck even the people in your own government had to scrabble. You letter to North Korea look like a break up letter written by a High School girl. Here is some advice, Mr. President. Let the professionals do the writing.

Now you claim that the Summit can still happen for June 12. How? Your advance teams are just now heading to Singapore to scout locations to hold the meeting. This should have been done months ago. There have been no advance team meetings with North Korea to deal with the details. Protocol processes will need to be understood so as not to insult the other side. What are your goals? Total de-nucleation will take years and require serious concession from you. Are you willing to do that? Are you willing to look like you are giving in? Your base isn’t going to like that.

Here is my final bit of advice. If you are serious about this, let your people do their jobs. Stop trying to micro-manage everything. This not your little business. Let the experts be the experts. Or you could come home with nothing looking like you got played.

Signed,

An Informed Citizen

Trade War

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages. The U.S. Government and the Trump administration is proud to present in the center ring… a War!
Whoa! Hold on there, kid. This is not the bloody, death, and destruction type of war. We already have two of those and another getting ready in the wings. Nope this is the type of war that is going to impact a majority of Americans. This is a Trade War.Yep, a Trade War. Something that we have not seen since 1930. Oh sure, we have had some minor skirmishes here and there, but nothing like the great war coming. But first, a little history and civics for those of you coming in late or have forgotten your high school lessons and economics. Yep, this is that one time you should have paid attention in high school.
Trade wars are when the government places tariffs on imported products (sometimes on exported ones). They could also limit the number of products coming in or going out. This included certain products from leaving the country (i.e. Rocket technology) or limiting amounts of certain products entering. This is all usually aimed at certain countries or industries. It becomes a war when the other country (or countries) retaliates with their own tariffs and limits.
Now for the history part. In 1930, Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. This was a campaign promise of President Hoover. It was originally designed to protect farmers due to the great change in technology. (Electricity and Automobiles if you were wondering.) There was surplus of agricultural products, due to less farming needed to feed horses and mules. But Congress being Congress could not just focus on the farmers. They started adding stuff for their own states. Now for the fun historical fact. The Republicans of the time controlled both houses of Congress and the White House. Sound familiar?Now while this and previous tariffs did not cause the Great Depression (lack of liquidity did. Déjà vu all over again. See 2008.), it did make it worse. In this case, the past is prologue. And all of this, is important to understand our current situation.Four events happened starting in December 2017 through March 2018. First was the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. The Law was by most standards a tax cut/giveaway to big corporations and the very rich. Turns out, the tax cut was not as big as promised. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan was bragging that the average teacher was getting an extra $1.50 in their paychecks. Heck, you can’t even buy a cup of coffee with that. This Bill was signed into law on Dec 22, 2017.
Second was the Tariffs on solar panels and washing machines manufactured outside of the country. These tariffs were designed to help domestic manufacturing of both products. A four-year plan that started with a 25% tariff on solar panels and washing machines get hit with a 20% tariff for the first 1.2 million machines (everything after that is 50%).
Next was an out of the blue announcement of 25% tariff on Steel and 10% on Aluminum (March 1, 2018). This was announced that since China and Europe were “dumping” low grade and low-cost materials in our market, this was needed. We will be discussing what this means to you later. Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, and Argentina were all provided with wavers. That lasted until May 1, 2018. All major traders and places that a majority of American Business do business with. The one country not even trying is China. It was implemented on March 23, 2018. Finally, the Trump Administration announced on March 22 that they would imposing $50 Billion of Tariffs on Chinese products. This was in response to Intellectual Property theft. The Chinese have a history of openly stealing tech and requiring companies to work with local firms. And for the Chinese, that was a bridge too far and this is what turned it into a Trade War.
The Chinese announced tariffs of their own amounting to $50 Billion. Most of these were aimed at agricultural products. The big hits being pork and soybeans. Right in the middle of the Heartland and Trump supporters. On April 5, the President told the Office of the United States Trade Representative to consider another $100 Billion in tariffs. This was done a day after tweeting “We are not in a trade war with China, that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S. Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue!”
OK, that’s the facts. Now how is this going to impact you? Why should you worry?The simple fact is that you are going to pay for it all. New cars are going up in price. That washing machine? Price just got jacked. A lot of items that say “Made in China” will probably be increased too. Companies are going shift that cost on to your wallet and then some.
Here’s a little thought on the law of unintended consequences. President Trump just killed his own infrastructure plans. Wait? How’s that again? You see the cost of the steel used to repair and build bridges just went up by 25%. Same with that new school in the neighborhood. That and more.
But OK, you’re not going to buy a new car or washing machine. And the bridges you drive on are fine. (not really, but for the sake of the argument…) But there are some other ways that this Trade war is already impacting you. That can of food (veggies, beans, spam, etc.) just went up. That can of soda is now costing your kid even more. Ok, your kid doesn’t drink soda and you never buy canned food. Then let’s talk about that can of beer you are drinking.
Now what a minute, you saw some guy on the news talk about how it will only add about a penny per can. But let’s talk about the hidden costs. The trucks and trains that move those cans use Steel and Aluminum in them. (The train tracks are made from high grade steel.) These things break down and will need to be fixed or replaced. More Materials. (Gas will cost more for same reasons, thus adding to transport cost.) The tools and tanks for the making of the Beer are made of Stainless Steel. So, instead of the 6-pack going up 6 cents, you are looking at 50 cents to a dollar. I’m betting on a dollar.
Right, you’re not a beer drinker. How do you feel about nuts? Me, I love pistachios. Just can’t get enough of them. Did you know that 50% of all pistachios grown in the US are bought in China? Can you guess a nut product that has been hit with tariff by the Chinese government? If you had said Cashews, Chestnuts, Walnuts, Almonds, Hazelnuts, Macadamia nuts, and Brazilian nuts, you would have been correct also. Also impacted will be Pineapple, Mangos, Oranges, and other citrus products. All of these will and are having a major impact on growers in California. (Side note: now that the U.S. has left the Iran Deal, Iranian Pistachios are banned from the U.S. Guess where they are headed?)
Now I can hear a number of you already grumbling, “that’s just those tie-dye-wearing, hippy-dippy California farmers. Who cares?” Well, given that the state of California is now the fifth largest economy in the world (just surpassing England), what hurts them, hurts the rest of the country. But does the President care about California? Nope, they didn’t vote for him.
Fine, then let’s talk Trump country. In the fall, China buys nearly 60% of all soybeans grown in the United States ($14 Billion). The top growers of Soybeans are Illinois and Iowa. Last month, China canceled 365,000 metric tons of soybeans. The price has since dropped by 13.7 %. The other products impacted by this Trade War: Beef (Texas, Kansas, Nebraska), Pork (Iowa), Wheat (Oklahoma), Corn (Iowa, Illinois), and Cotton (Texas, Georgia). I have not even gotten into the Scrap Aluminum and Paper for recycling barges that are being turned away. Once those tariffs start to bite and orders start declining, how long will the President keep his supporters then?
Who is going to pay for this? Who is going to be impacted the most? Trump and his millionaire/billionaire buddies and government officials? Nope. It will be the working and middle class. But not at first. The prices for these consumer goods never react quickly to your store shelf. (Oil is the expectation. Oil companies run what is known as a just in time operation.) You can expect to see food prices rise over the summer and manufactured goods by the Christmas season. There go those Tax savings. Will this Trade War work? Will the Presidents goals be achieved? If history and the current situation are any indication, then no. Not only will it not work, but it will hurt the U.S. economy and take years for us to recover, if at all.
Congratulations America, you are about to get a whole lot poorer.

Experts

Dear Senators and Representatives of both parties,

Allow me to give you some advice. It is OK to admit that you don't understand everything, especially science. Most of you have law degrees. No real background in the sciences or technology.

There are plenty of experts willing to advise you on their area of knowledge. These people have spent their entire lives studying one or two subjects. They know that one subject and its impacts better than you know your donors.

Don't be afraid of these elites. They are elites because they are the best in their fields. They have earned the titles. You don't know more then they do. Listen to them and learn.

Signed,
An Informed Citizen.

Iran Deal

Dear Mr. President,

Well, you went and did it. You really did it. You broke the Iran deal. And in the process made the world and America less safe. You have taken the first step to another war in the Middle East.

But Why? Your own Department of Defense has stated that the Iranians were living up to their end of the deal. The U.N. inspectors have confirmed this. This was the strictest arms inspection regime in history. All aspects concerning the enrichment of uranium, the running (and building) of the centrifuges, and stock piling of high grade uranium were being followed. The making/purifying of uranium/plutonium leave traces that are easy to detect. The gas centrifuges are big, next to impossible to hide.

Was this because of the presentation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presenting an out-of-date show with data that was known before the deal? Did the young Saudi prince offer you a deal to build another hotel? Or was it that your new National Security Adviser John Bolton has been agitating for a war with Iran? Heck, the man has a plan to overthrow the regime by 2020.

You have also just cost Boeing $20 Billion. How many jobs would that have translated to (estimates are close 100K)? Tax revenue, tariffs, fees? What other companies are now going to lose out also?

You are now required to impose sanctions on Iran. This means that one of things that must be stopped is the export of oil. There are two countries that buy the majority of their oil from Iran. The first is India. We have been trying to get a stronger strategic relationship with them. The new sanctions/higher oil prices will deal a blow to their economy and hence ours.

The other is China. You have already started a trade war with them. Now you are adding another blow to their economy. Which means that we will get impacted again.

In case you have not figured out how this will impact us, let me continue your education. The Indians and the Chinese will now be going after the same oil as we are. Hence the increase in oil prices. Once they have the oil, they will pass the extra cost on to us. Guess what, oil prices are up. And who is going to pay?

But that is OK, you and supporters believe that the Tax cuts are going to take care of this. But it’s not, is it? First of the Tax cuts are not that big. Secondly, (and this is a science question to you) do you know what plastics are made from? Yep, oil. All those toys, electronics, vehicles, and other items made with/using plastics are now going to start costing more.

OK, we’ll let that sink in for a bit. Let’s talk about security and diplomacy. You just broke a deal that China, Russia, England, France, the European Union, and the United States (P5+1) got Iran to agree to. This was entered into with good faith. The fact that countries that rarely agree on anything, joined together for a common cause should have been a sign of the importance this issue was considered.

But you have unilaterally pulled us from it. Why? You still have not stated why. You have not provided any information as to what is going to replace the Deal? Going back to sanctions is not a good idea. They didn’t work then, what makes you think they will work now?

By pulling out of this deal, the TPP and your comments about NAFTA and NATO, you are showing our allies and enemies that we cannot be counted on to keep our word. North Korea will not make a deal with you concerning their nuclear program. They won’t know if they can trust you. Our Allies are already questioning if we will keep our defense commitments in light of your comments and actions with this deal. Also, you can forget that Noble Peace Prize.

There is a tradition that presidents honor the foreign policy deals/treaties of their predecessors. They may not like it, they made hate it with a passion unheard of, but they still honor it. If they want to change it, they either renegotiate or create a new deal/treaty all the while the previous agreements are still in effect. This has been a sacred tradition for our country for over two hundred years. And before you jump on the “it is not a treaty” bandwagon, not all interactions with other countries are treaties. Sometimes they are just a handshake or a plan on the back of a cocktail napkin.

That is the diplomacy, but what about the security? You claimed that we are safer with this deal gone. How? How does not having inspectors in country make us safer? What you have done is played into the hands of the hardliners in Iran. They are now saying “See America, the Great Satan, cannot be trusted. We must now begin to build the Bomb to protect ourselves.” They will now restart their program shortly. And they will have it shortly. What are you going to do to stop this? Are we going to war again? Or was this because you hate Barack Obama so much that you have to destroy everything that he did regardless of the damage to the country?

You have placed the country in danger. You have diminished our standing in the world. You have set the stage for another war in the region. You claimed to be the great Deal-maker. Where is the new Deal? Tell us, Mr. President. Soothe our concerns and show us that we are wrong. Show the world that you know more than they do. I’m betting you can’t and won’t. History won’t be kind.

Signed,
An Informed Citizen.

Presidential Subpoenas

Dear Rudy Giuliani,

Please allow me to correct your knowledge of history and fact. You claim that the Constitution allows that the POTUS cannot be subpoenaed. You are wrong.

Three Presidents have been subpoenaed. Jefferson, Nixon, and Clinton. We know how it turned out for the last two. Hence, there is indeed precedent.

Where in the Constitution does it state that he can't be? Nowhere. You and your fellow Trump supporters keep forgetting that the Judiciary is a co-equal branch of the Government.

So, to the followers of the President and you, let me remind you that there are two types of subpoenas. (I won't attempt the Latin. I would get it wrong.) The first type compels you to provide testimony. The other requires you to provide physical evidence.

Jefferson was subpoenaed for both testimony and evidence in the Arron Burr treason trial. Nixon was required to turn over the tapes. And we all watched Bill Clinton give testimony.

Time for you to go back and re-read those text books from law school. It appears you have forgotten the basics. In your current position, try less spin and more law. Your client will thank you.

Signed,
An Informed Citizen.