Streaming, broadcasting, and the future.

Just finished reading an article in the NY Times about the 20th Century and Disney merger. One of the big points that came out is that everybody is betting on streaming. With viewers of broadcast and cable down, there is a business case for this view.

But here is what struck me. As more broadcasters start to fail/go out of business (see the more rural areas of the country), an interesting thing will develop. As with radio stations having the same problem, what happens to the bandwidth on the radio spectrum.

Now for those you that don't what this means, please allow me to explain some (but not all) points. In the United States, the radio band is leased to radio stations, television stations, and cell phone providers. Government/military get certain spots that the rest of are not allowed to touch. There is more about this, but you get the general idea.

When a station goes belly up, ownership of the bandwidth is up for grabs. Recently, cell phone companies have been snatching these up. At some point, they will reach a point that won't need anymore. Hence ownership will become too expensive, they will either let them lapse or try to sell them. (If no one buys them, they will lapse)

So what then. Will nobody use it? Or will we see a return to pirate stations? Radio broadcasting is fairly easy and cheap. I was the voice over person for a pirate station in the 1980s. Technology has gotten cheaper, smaller, and more powerful.

If everything goes on-line (entertainment and news), will the government even care about the pirates like they did in the 1980s and 1990s? There is plenty of dystopian fiction concerning this future. But we are on the edge of this now. Time to re-start your thinking.

Helsinki and Russians

Dear Mr. President,

It appears that I have to give you another lesson on how the real world works. You seem to think that the American people don't have a memory or know how to use modern tools, like the internet.

At the Helsinki press conference, Vladimir Putin stated point-blank that he wanted you to win the election. We all heard it and can show you the video to prove it. But you did a couple things that insulted our intelligence.

First is a tweet you stated that the Russians want the Dems to win the midterms. An incredibly laughable statement. The Russians love what you are doing.

The second is your speech that you gave today to the VFW. You told the members in attendance they should not believe what they are seeing and hearing. They should only believe what you are telling them.

Finally, in the White House transcript of the Helsinki press conference, you or aides left out the question where President Putin was asked if he wanted you to win.

Why do I bring up the transcript? This is where I have to educate you about the modern world. You see the video of that event is not only in the hands of the media, it also all over the internet. And in case you have forgotten, once on the net, it is out there forever. It can never be forgotten, only slightly misplaced. But it will be found. Again and again and again.

You can try to remove it via legal means or other ways. And guess what, it won't work. You see the internet was created by the Defense Department to survive a nuclear war. There are servers all over the world holding data. This includes videos. You can't get to them all.

Stop trying to gaslight the American public, Mr. President. We won't stand for it. The evidence is too easy get and to show you and your supporters where you are wrong. Deal with it or face the voter’s wraith come 2020.

Signed,

An Informed Citizen.

Security and Clearances

The White House wants to revoke the security clearances of 8 critics. All of them are former national security officials. The funny thing is that 2 of them already don't have security clearances, thanks to Rand Paul.

But the reason as to why is truly laughable. They are accused of "monetizing their public service and security clearances." What does this mean? The President and hanger-on’s don't like the fact that these people went for jobs that were based on past experience. They also wrote books about their experiences and analysis of current situations. Finally, they are getting paid for making speeches.

It seems that they don't like others making money. They only want it for themselves. But making monies off your past experiences is how you get new jobs.

But why did they still have them? Basically, it was for continuity of control and information. The new people need to know what was going on before them and sometimes that information is not in reports. They also need to know about the personalities of the people being dealt with. You can only get this by talking to your predecessors.

Why remove these clearances, now? These people have been critical of the administration pretty much since it began. Two reason jump right out. First is the political disaster that the last 2 weeks were. The NATO meeting and "summit" with Putin even scared the Republicans. Look at how much was spent on Trump spent on the trip to Scotland. Monetizing public service is something this administration does very well.

The other reason is the Mueller investigation. Every time something new happens or is about to happen, this administration creates some disaster or stupid policy change. Manafort's trail starts next week, Cohen is announcing he has tapes, and the Russian spy trail starts tomorrow. All things that Trump does not want the American people and media talking or thinking about.

What this group of cutthroats and misfits seem to have forgotten is that many know how to multitask. And with this thing called the Internet, nothing ever disappears from modern history.

But the real question here is about free speech and the right to make a living. College kids are encouraged to go get a government internship, just to get a security clearance. This now practically a requirement for upper level jobs in corporate America. Now the Administration wants to eliminate this from its critics. Does this mean that everyone that says something that is not in lockstep with the President and his cronies will lose their clearance?

It is starting to look like that. What is next? Shutting down media outlets, webpages, or midnight raids? We know where that leads. History has shown it. And where will history place us?

Investigation processes

One of the questions that I have for Trump and his supporters concerns the Mueller investigation. The current claim is that it is a witch hunt, that it is taking too long, and that some of the charges deal with pre-trump campaign.

The question is do you not understand how these investigations work? The basics are really quite simple. They look at a potential target(s) and they start following leads. If a crime is found along the way, they either prosecute or trade for information.

Now these things take time. Writing the documents alone for the court takes days if not weeks. People have to be interviewed and interviewed again (they compare stories against other people). Evidence has to be examined and re-examined, usually by several experts. This is not an episode of Law & Order, where it is over in 47 minutes.

Now most of us are not lawyers. I'm not one and I don't play one on TV. But you can pick up the basics by looking at things that have happened before. The most obvious one is Watergate. Yet another one is the investigations and convictions of organized crime figures.

In those types of investigations, they stated with the small fry and worked to the bigger fish. This is why mob chauffeurs and low level people get next to nothing for testifying against the made men. This is the tried and true process that has worked for decades.

The Mueller investigation is unique in that nobody is leaking information or people being investigated. Members of Congress and the White House are in a near panic to know something. They are threatening several members in the DOJ with a number of things.

One of the people that making the biggest noise is former U.S. Attorney Rudy Giuliani. This later mayor of New York City was one of those that went after the Mob. He especially should know that these things take time. Yet, now it is coming out that he too is being investigated.

Now I bring this this up because he and people in the White House are acting like a guilty person trying to distract those doing the investigation. Yet they constantly say there is nothing there. Heck, almost every other phrase utter by the President is "There is no collusion."

So, to the Supporters of the President, if you have nothing to fear, then why the rush to shut it down? What is it that's making you lose sleep? These are Republicans running the investigation, appointed by Republicans. They are your people. Or is it that deep down you know they are guilty and don't want to look bad for supporting them? No matter what happens history will judge.

 

Nato and Trump

One of things that people had against Obama was this false idea that he was constantly having to apologize for Bush the Younger and his actions. People believed that Obama was given the Nobel Prize simply because he was not Bush. The height of this was a speech in 2009 entitled "A New Beginning." This was the speech that told the Muslim world that the United States respect their faith and were not at war with them. People lost their minds.

The last 7 days have shown a President that attacks our allies (NATO) and trading partners (EU). A President trying to destroy our special relationship with Great Britain. And then to side with Russia concerning the meddling of the 2016 elections.

This president has been systematically been destroying our standing in world. He has ceded the leadership role that the United States built up for the last 70 years. This role has always come at a price (gold and blood). But this President appears afraid of that.

Sooner or later, there will be another president. That president will be the one that will actually have to apologize for the actions of their predecessor. But the damage will have been done. The trust has been broken and can never be repaired.

It took 70 years of blood and sweat to build up that leadership. We will not have it back for a very long time. Hard decisions and actions will be needed. But first we have to apologize and make amends to those we have hurt. We can only hope that they will forgive us. If not, you just saw the world change in a most negative way. Our children and grandchildren will curse us.

Keeping up

Today. First, Trump creates a security crisis for the country. He does not back the country's 17 intelligence agencies. Instead he backs Putin in the election meddling. If you don't think that is bad, leave the country. Even the folks at FOX news were horrified.

Next, Maria Butina was arrested. She had strong ties to the NRA. She worked with John Bolton. You know him, he is the President's National Security Advisor. Why was she arrested? Turns out she’s a foreign agent for the Russian Federation. In other word, she is a spy for Putin. She will be in court on Wednesday. Lots will be shown.

Also happening today, Manafort's first hearing was delayed for week. This court is known to move trials along. After the fiasco of Trump's press conference, the general thought is Manafort is looking to make a deal. Not sure I buy that, but with the craziness of today, who knows.

Finally, a number of the Republicans appeared to have found their backbones. Will this lead to something? I doubt it. They are still afraid of Trump and his base.

Social media has, of course, gone crazy. Those on the left are calling for impeachment, while the right are screaming Trump's line about servers. Just a note to the Trump supporters: the DNC completely cooperated with the FBI. Also, Podesta was Hillary's campaign manager, not in charge of the DNC. Every conceivable theory is currently fly around. My personal favorite is the Moon landing is somehow involved in all of this.

So, will there be an impeachment? Nope. There is still too many people that believe in Trump. Will there be any repercussions to the President? More than likely not. Ryan and McConnell are still running the House and Senate. But more things are coming out faster than we thought. But I'm not waiting. I'm getting deeper involved and you should too.

With everything moving so fast, I'm finding that it is getting too hard to keep up. What about you?

Liberals could lose

Dear Progressives, Liberals, and Democrats,

Congratulations. You are on course to lose the mid-term elections. Yep, you read that right. But why, you ask? There are some obvious and simple reasons, but they’re not something that you are going to want to hear or like.

The first is 2016. Time to face some hard facts. Based on our system of government, you lost. Trump is now President. At this point, a number of you are going to start writing what a terrible person I am. Some of you will rant about Bernie, Hillary, the DNC, or even the Russians. Go ahead. Write all you want. But you are just going to prove my points. Instead, wait until the end. You might like what I have to say.

Back to 2016. The leaked Dem’s e-mails implied (they never actually said so) that the game was rigged in Hillary’s favor. Yep, it probably was. But I want you to consider for a second, this; State governments run the Primaries/Caucuses, not the national party. The DNC was limited by what they could do. If the DNC was the Bond villain organization some of think it is, then Bernie would never have gotten as far as he did.

There is still some serious bad blood on the left side of the aisle over 2016. A number of you were claiming that you were either going to form another party or never vote for the Dems again. Stop being stupid! In an upcoming post, I will explain the current stupidity of 3^rd parties and how they can become viable. Furthermore, if you don’t vote for the Dems, then you get more Trump and his ilk. Like it or not, that is currently how it works.

What you really need to do is change the Party. How? There are two long terms solutions and one short term. The short term is easy and legal, however there are some rules that need to be followed. Get your friends and yourself to donate monies together. Give up that expensive coffee and latte once a week. That money can then go to the candidate of your choice. One of the ways to give the money and not get lost in the shuffle is called “bundling.” This is where one of you, take the checks from all your friends and hand them to the candidate at some event. (Hence, in a “bundle.”) People who do this get influence. Heck, in the past, some even get appointed to some positions. Great way to change things and it’s legal.

The first of the long term solutions is to vote in the candidate you support and keep them there. The longer they are there, the better positions they get. Chairmanships of committees get to set tones, investigate/subpoena, and kill/pass the bills on to floor votes. The Judiciary committee gets give the thumb up or down on Supreme Court nominees.

The other way is to join the party and take it over. Once you and your friends are in charge you can make all the changes you want. But that takes commitment. You have to know who the movers and shakers are in your district, state, and nationally. This is a long fight, not just one or two election cycles.

The next problem is a voter problem. Not the one about showing up. We will talk about that later. The problem here, in a word, is “Purity.”

Since the 2016 election, a number of Progressives and Liberals have all stated the need for a level of absolute purity on an issue/background or they won’t vote for them. Issues are varied and so are the backgrounds. There was, and still is, a lot of justification of this with people claiming that they don’t want to vote for the “lesser of two evils.”

There is something to be said about this. In times that are more civil, the conversations less heated, and less extreme, this is considered admirable. But these are not those times. And quite frankly, they won’t be for a long time to come. In this environment, you are going to have to make some compromises. Compromise is at the very heart of the Legislative branch of government. There is an old saying that “Half a Loaf is better than no Loaf.” That certainly applies now.

What has to be noted here, is that there is no such thing as a pure or perfect candidate. Everybody has said something insensitive in their youth or invested in a company that is currently out of favor. The question is did the candidate learn from that moment (or events)? Have they changed and become a better person because of it? Events and comments need to be looked at in their total context. Judging based on sound bites is never a good idea. However, if they say something insensitive now, that is just plain stupid. And knowing about criminal activity, like sexual abuse, then all bets are off.

Another problem facing the Dems and their allies is messaging. In 1992, Bill Clinton was famous for the phrase “It’s the Economy, Stupid.” Trump and his allies have latched on to this and it is working well. Currently, the market is doing great and unemployment is low. Now before you start getting into facts, figures, and details, know that the average American does not care. If they have a job and their 401K is doing better than a few years ago, your argument has no meaning. The Dems need to stand for something more than just anti-Trump. They need ideas that will resonate with Americans. Fortunately for the Dems, the Trump Tariffs will really start to bite just as most Americans are starting to get interested in the mid-terms.

Tip O’Neil was famous for saying that all politics are local. In a lot of cases this is true. Just look at the New York 14^th Congressional District. However, this year, the mid-terms are a definite referendum on Trump and the Republicans. Messaging will be key. One of the things that this means is that people like Pelosi, Schumer, and Waters will need to take a lesser role in the national discussions. The general populist are tired of seeing the same old faces for the last 30 odd years. They will be looking for the new generation. So, the next generation of leaders are going to have to step up to be seen and heard.

Finally, we come to voter turnout. Before going any further, we need to look at some hard numbers. These come the Pew Research Center. There are 69.2 million Millennials, only 49.4% voted (up 3% from 2014). The Boomer population is 69.7 million and 68.7% voted (down 1% from 2014). White America were up by 5% and African Americans were down 6%. See a problem?

Based on the above data, the problem here is that Millennials and African Americans did not vote. Millennials are now at parity in population to the Boomers. Simply put, if the Millennials want, they can now take charge. The Boomers are dying off, hence their numbers are starting a rapid decline and so is their influence.

Now here is some other facts. Evangelicals are 17% of the population, yet they counted for 25% of the voters in 2018. Their numbers are dropping, but they are maintaining their influence. Why? They got out and voted.

And that is the biggest point of the entire rant. You and your friends have to get off your butts and vote. No excuses will be allowed. Polls are usually open for about 12 hours (some states are longer). The excuse about work does not hold. In the 36 years that I have been a voter, I have never had an employer prevent me from needing a little time to go vote.

Can’t get to the polls due to transportation issues? There are plenty of organizations that can and will help you. Call a friend that is registered to vote and normally doesn’t. Daycare issues? Take the kids with you.

Check your voter status now. SCOTUS just ruled that states can purge the voter records of inactive people. Make sure you are not one of those people. If you are, than re-register. Hard to register due to bizarre state laws? Start now.

These are the problems that the Dems and Liberals will be facing. There is slightly less than four months until the midterms. Right after Labor Day, the American voter wakes up and sees that there is an election coming. This is the time to get engage, when voting infrastructures need building, finishing, and manning. This is the time to get people registered to vote. This is the time to start talking about the issues and the candidates.

In the words of Jim Wright (Stonekettle Station), “If you want a better country, be a better Citizen.” Mr. Wright is correct. Now is the time to be that better Citizen.

Brett Kavanaugh

President Trump has chosen Brett Kavanaugh for the next Justice on the SCOTUS. He clerked for Justice Kennedy, worked for the Bush the Younger, and helped write the Ken Starr report. He was a lead investigator in the Vince Foster suicide.

First he believed that Presidents could be subpoenaed. Then over the years he changed his tune to be opposed to it. Think about what that means for the upcoming fight with the Mueller investigation.

But the biggie is going to be the change to Roe. In about 18 months you could see a total roll back of a woman's right to choose. The day after the Inauguration was the Women's March.

A friend posted that they did not know what they were marching for. This person believed nothing was going to happened. They were wrong. This is what could and is happening.

With 6 consecutive justices you can see the roll back on a number rights. There is already talk in conservative circles of not only overturning Roe, but also Marriage Equality, labor laws, environmental protections, and government protections.

Don't look for the Dems to be able to do much. They are in the minority and three of them even voted for Neil Gorsuch. For the Dems to stop this, all them must stand firm and convince just one Republican to join them. To be honest, I don't expect that to happen.

So, what can you do about it? Not much. There are two things that you can do. First is contact every elected official you can. The more voices there are, the louder they become.

Next, you must vote on November 6. Changing the Senate means changing who will get picked. And guys like this will not get nominated.

Time to stand and let your voice be heard. It's up to you. History will judge how well we did at this point.

Trade War, part 2

<Beep, beep, beep, beep> Good Evening Mr. and Mrs. America and all the ships at sea. Flash: Washington D.C.

On Thursday, May 31, President Trump fired the first shot of the Trade War. Was it at the acknowledged enemy, China? No. Instead, in a surprise move, the President shot our trading allies and friends. Not only did this catch them off guard, but the White House staff was not aware of it until he tweeted about it.

Which allies you ask? Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Notice that China, Russia, and other “enemies” were not targeted. Granted there are still some tariffs going back and forth between the U.S. and China, but the Steel and Aluminum tariffs were not implemented there, only on our allies. Could this be because Trump rolled back the Sanctions on telecom giant ZTE (“Concerned about Chinese jobs”), while the Chinese invested a half Billion for a Trump Tower in Indonesia? You decide. I think it was a flat-out bribe and a violation of the Emoluments clause.

But let’s get back to the Trade War. With any war, it is a good idea to figure how it started, why, and who has the authority to do so. We know how (see above). Trump has been agitating to do this for months. Why now? This is what is driving everyone crazy. At this point, I and others can only speculate but let’s give it a go.

Welcome to the Mid-terms, boys and girls. This is a twofold move. First is to energize the base. “Look at what those terrible countries have done to our poor industries.” Forget the fact that these industries have been in decline since the 1970s and automation has killed more jobs than anything else, the base wants their Boogeyman. Get a good Boogeyman and support more candidates like you and Poof! you hold the House and Senate.

The other is negotiating tactics. Trump has stated that he is re-negotiating NAFTA with Canada and Mexico on an individual basis. Cause a little pain, some concern about local industry, and try to panic the politicians. He also has this mistaken belief that we have a trade deficit with Canada, when we really have a surplus.

But how can he do this? You see, there is this little clause in the Constitution that states that Congress has the power “To regulate commerce with foreign nations…” (Article 1, Section 8, clause 3). This is referred to as the “Commerce Clause.” Thus only Congress can determine Trade and trade issues (see Smoot-Hawley Act). So, why is the President able to implement the tariffs?

In 1962, it was the height of the Cold War. Congress was looking to let the President raise or lower tariffs as a way of dealing with National Security issues. Thus was born the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Then it was passed (and signed), and 5 days later started the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Some believe it was this act that was quietly used that got the Organization of American States to vote unanimously against Cuba during the Crisis.) This is the stated excuse for the Tariffs. That the Canadian Steel and Aluminum mills are a security threat to us. Think about that. The one country that has stood by us in just about every military action since the First World War is now a security threat. (This threat being stated as the need for in-country production.)

Now what are the impacts to Canada? The U.S. Media does not talk about much about this, but there are some easy ones. The most obvious is the Steel and Aluminum workers. They export nearly 90% of their steel to the U.S. That is only 16% of U.S. steel imports. But let’s not forget that 42% of Aluminum imports come from Canada. And of course, the Canadian autoworker. The price of cars is going up.

Of course, the Canadians responded with some targeted tariffs of their own. A lot of them have to deal with manufactured steel and aluminum: bars, rolls, wire, and ingots. It is the other items that are getting the most press. They include strawberry jam, ketchup, mayo, salad dressings, whiskies, and paper products. There are more, but I have only a limited time and space.

Who will they affect here in the United States and how? The one that I have been thinking about the most is whisky, mainly bourbon. Most of the bourbon manufactured in American comes from the great state of Kentucky. We’ll get why this is important later.

The largest producer is Jim Beam in Clermont Kentucky. The impact on the Jim Beam company is obvious. More tariffs, less profits, and less exports. With less Exports, that means there will be a whole lot of bourbon sitting around in warehouses. You are probably thinking, “Great! Lower prices.” Not so fast. Like most companies, they will just pass the cost onto the customer. But it is the future you should worry about. You see it takes a minimum of two years for bourbon to be made. A lot can happen in two years. Now the company execs will have to make some hard decisions. Do they plan on the tariffs being long term or is this just a blip?

Either way, they will be more than likely be cutting back production. Less production means less people needed at the distillery. They will not need as many White Oak Barrels, so less people at the Cooper. And of course, less corn and wheat. Think about the impact on the local farmers. And don’t forget the truck drivers who deliver the raw materials and the finished products.

Now why is this important that it is impacting Kentucky? If you remember at the beginning, we talked about how Congress is supposed to set the trade policy. During the beginnings of this war, Congress has been largely missing. Who are the two Senators from the great state of Kentucky? Why Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul.

A major industry and the supporting businesses are about to be negatively impacted and the Kentucky Senators have said nothing. Want to bet that Jim Beam and the local farmers will not be donating to their re-election campaigns?

So, what do we have here? From the previous post about a Trade War and this one, we are seeing that the countries that are targeted by the Trump administration are responding in kind and aiming at his base. This Trade War is going hurt the Rust Belt and the Farmers of the Midwest. And by doing so, hurt the rest of us and send us back into a recession.

More has happened since I started writing this Rant. Too many other things pulled me away. But let me tell you about a few of these events. Harley-Davidson is moving some production out of the country. (Trump claims that they will get taxed heavily.) Soy Bean prices are down 15-19%. Mid-Continental Nail Company, the largest U.S. nail manufacturer, has had to lay off 10% of its work force and announced that they could be out of business by Labor Day if the tariffs aren’t lifted. Finally, GM has announced that they will have to lay people off and raise the price of cars on average by $5500.

There are more to tell, but I think you get the idea. Now let’s add some more “fun.” On July 7, this administration will impose $30 Billion worth of tariffs on China. China has stated that they will respond in kind. Make no mistake here. A lot of businesses and people are going to get hurt here. Prices across the board are going to go up and layoffs will happen. There goes the great economy and jobs numbers President Trump has been touting.

The benefits you think you are getting from the tax cut are going to be gone. The corporations will lay off more people. Congress and the Trump Administration will panic and propose another tax cut bill. Heck, they are already starting the process to be passed in September (Remember those mid-terms). But no matter what, you are going to be paying more for everything.

Is this how we “Make American Great Again?” By killing the economy? How is he going to blame the Dems and liberals? This is all Trump’s doing. And how can we stop this? You can’t. Not until November 6. You will have to change the House of Representatives and the Senate.

But will you? Will this be the thing that gets you to say: Enough!? Will people vote the bums out, like they are always screaming about? We will know on November 7. Until then, tighten your belt and water down the soup. It is going to be a long hot summer.

North Korea, part 2

Dear Mr. President,

A couple days after you came back from the summit with North Korea, I warned you that you got played. And now the evidence has come out proving that truth.

For those of you that have missed it, let me inform you about the latest events. Intelligence officials (and satellite imagery) have reported that Kim Jong-un has started enriching uranium at several secret locations. He has also resumed manufacturing solid rocket fuel. This is used in ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles). These missile can hit the major sections of the 7th fleet at Guam, the Hawaiian Island, and most of the continental United States.

And now, your national security adviser, John Bolton, claims that you and him have a plan to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, within a year. Would you care to share that plan with the American people, Mr. President? We would love to see it. But knowing your history, you will announce that you plan to let us see it in a couple of weeks (or shortly/soon). Then something else will happen, usually caused by you, and you will hope that we forget all about it. Sorry Mr. President, it won't happen.

Congratulations, this is the results of gutting the State Department. You still have not had your South Korean Ambassador nominee, Harry Harris, a conformation hearing with the Senate. You have no real diplomatic advisers or lines of communications with the Koreas. And to add insult to injury, the entire set of sanctions that both you and President Obama setup, have now collapsed. North Korea is trading with other nations like it is Black Friday.

On you June 13, you tweeted that America could sleep well after your little summit. I and most Americans have not had a decent night sleep since then. But you really don't care do you? You are all excited about the next meeting with Vladimir Putin. Heck, you're ready to concede the Russian annexation of Crimea.

What is your foreign policy, Mr. President? The American people want to know. You have been President for over a year and half. You must have some idea. Care to share? I'm not going to hold my breath while you try to figure it out. Neither will the American people.

Signed,

An Informed Citizen.