The 25th Amendment, Impeachment, and Trump.
A political rant. You have been warned.
Ever since Trump got elected, Democrats, progressives, and liberals have been ranting about the ways to remove him. Their reasons are wide and far, complex and simple, obvious and subtle. And yet not a single one of them will be used or work. Let’s look at what they are, how they work, and why it won’t happen under this president.
When the founding fathers created the Constitution, they had just fought a war for independence, 10 years earlier. The creation of the Society of the Cincinnati created a minor controversy. This was a group of former solders. You had to be a former solder to be a member. They had set themselves up as a hereditary society. This scared the heck out of the people trying to create a government. The fathers were worried about another King. They wanted a way to remove the President. Hence, we get impeachment.
But what most people don’t know is how it really works. First a resolution goes to a sub-committee. Next it goes to the committee based on the charge, usually this is the House Committee on the Judiciary. This Committee investigates whether or not a “High Crime or Misdemeanor” was committed. (See Section 4, Article 2 of the U.S. Constitution.) An interesting detail here, the Constitution does not really identify what a “High Crime and Misdemeanor” is. A simple majority is all that is needed to move it to the full House. In the House, a simple majority is also all that is required to pass each resolution. Now the person is impeached. A little side note here. Until Clinton, the House had only impeached 18 federal officers. 15 judges (one was a Supreme Court Justice), 1 Cabinet Secretary, a Senator, and a President.
Once the resolutions have been approved, they are sent to the Senate. At this point, the Senate performs a trial. Members of the House act as the prosecution. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presides over the trial. The accused can defend themselves or have a lawyer present. 67 senators are needed to convict. They will hold intense debates about evidence and witnesses. When the trail part is done, the senators vote on conviction or not. No secret ballots here. On the record and open to the public. Once convicted, the person is out. Right then and there.
Now think about this process. Those of us old enough, remember the Clinton Impeachment. Charged with perjury and Obstruction of Justice, the Senate could not even get a simple majority. All of this in almost two months’ time. Why is this important? 67 Senators means that you have to have members from both sides of the aisle. In the current environment the Republicans have 51 members and the Democrats have 49. If impeachment were to happen today that would mean 18 Republicans would have to believe that the President was such a threat to the country that they were willing to vote against the party. This will not happen.
Why? The Republicans, that are not retiring, will be looking to get re-elected. The President’s base is at 35% of the voting population. These are highly vocal and energized voters. These are the people that vote in the primaries. They vote for the extreme candidates and are single issue voters. They will not let a Republican vote for impeachment without punishing them. Hence, no re-election.
Now the Mid-terms are coming up. Chances are high that the Dems will take back one if not both chambers. So the numbers will shift again. Do you really see either side voting against their party?
An honest look at the country shows that we are 50-50 ideological. (Conservatives vs. Liberals) Even the most strident politician knows that an impeachment would tear the country apart. The only way that it would even be thought about is if Mueller comes up with something, so over whelming, that close to 80-90% of the American people would want the President gone. Don’t hold your breath.
Next is the 25th Amendment. A little history first. If you have read the constitution, the secession for the death of a President was very unclear. Heck, nowhere was does it even talk about replacing the Vice President. (There was no Vice President after the Lincoln and Kennedy assassination.) There is a long history of the problems with Secession. Fortunately, we have had people of vision to understand that a smooth transition was necessary for a democracy. When Harrison died (1841), John Tyler took over as President. There was some debate about wither he was the “Acting” President or just President. He decided to be President and thus was formed the “Tyler Precedent.” And Secession was set up, but was on shaky ground.
Then came the Kennedy Assassination. Something had to be done. 4 years later, the 25th Amendment was born and ratified. The first three sections are about what happens if the President dies or quits and the replacement of the Vice-president. But the fourth section is the one the Liberals keep talking about.
Section 4 was originally intended for in case the President was incapacitated, such has being placed in a coma (Stroke – Wilson, Heart attack – Eisenhower, or assassination – Kennedy). Basically, the cabinet and Vice President says the President can’t do the job. Congress left a loop hole for the President to say “I’m not dead. I’m getting better.” And then the Cabinet gets to say, “No you’re not, you’ll be stone dead in a moment.” At this point, both houses of Congress gets to decide who’s right and who’s wrong by a 2/3 majority. (290 in the House and 67 for the Senate) And all on a strict schedule (27 days).
When the President is incapacitated and can’t talk for himself, of course the Cabinet and VP are going to have no problem convincing the Congress and the American people about his capability. But what about if the charge is mental fitness? Seriously, think about it. What constitutes someone being unfit mentally versus being an A-hole? Sure, appointing your dog to be Secretary of Defense is a good indication, but beyond that what are the signs?
Only trained professionals can answer that. They will and have had a wide verity of opinions on this subject. Does hearing voices count? Some will think this person is highly religious and think they are hearing the voice of God. What about temperament? Does being an uninformed jerk/A-hole make you mentally unfit? If that were the case, just about every CEO in the business world would be declared unfit to run a company.
Yet once these questions are resolved in the minds of the Cabinet, ask this questions. Do you see this Cabinet turning on this President? This is a group that practically shouts it allegiance to him at the beginning of each cabinet meeting. Why remove him even if he is nuts? The Cabinet and his advisers around him could prop him up and be the people really running things. Don’t believe me? Ask Mrs. Wilson.
So, there it is. The only two legal ways for the country to remove a president. Both require large numbers of Representatives and Senators. And none of it will happen in the three years left in the President’s term.
What are the options then? If Special Prosecutor Mueller finds something really bad, maybe the mood and attitudes of Congress and the American People will change. But don’t hold your breath. The President might resign from the office. Especially, if the Congress or Mueller is closing in on him or his family. (This is what happened with Nixon) Sadly, I don’t see this President having the temperament to make that sacrifice. Finally is death. With the recent medical physical, we know that the President does suffer from heart disease. We know he eats like a child, gets very little exercise, and is overweight. All signs of a pending heart attack. Don’t wait for it. Who knows when that will strike?
Nope, the only real choice for Liberal, Democrats, and progressives is the 2018 mid-term elections. They will need to take back at least one of the houses of Congress. This is where the checks and balances of our system will really play out. The Houses determines the budgets. The Senate advises and consents the Federal Judiciary. These are things that will impact this country for years, if not generations.
How they accomplish this is a matter up for debate. Couple of things are certain. First, the anger, paranoia, and attitudes need to go away. Purity tests only cause harm. Remember, a half loaf is better than no loaf. Yes, it is a cliché, but the long view has to be invoke here. Put aside the defeats of the last Election and think about what you really want. Do you want this administration’s policies to continue? You decided.
Secondly, the Liberals, Progressives, and Democrats will need to get out and vote. No Conspiracies. No complaints. No excuses. The more of you that vote, the better chance you have of winning. Don’t like having to vote for the lesser of two evils? Too bad. Third parties will just help the Republicans.
There it is. Impeachment and the 25th Amendment will not be used and cannot succeed in the current environment. A longer view will be needed. But do Liberals and the Democrats have that kind of discipline? Only history will know.
